How This Bizarre Season Broke the Traditional Coach of the Year Mould.
Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward script. It frequently acts as a type of mea culpa. Sorry we misjudged your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.
In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who engineered the most dramatic turnaround is handed the prize. In practice, it creates an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent leadership or simply the most shocking shock.
Yet the current race is distinctly different. The list of candidates is unusually talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been unpredictable, with reigning division winners falling away and longtime also-rans rising collectively. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the conference would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this chaotic and fun season, he's facing several other outstanding candidates.
Below is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.
5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record
Voters for Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.
The Bears' head coach not only fixed his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the chance to showcase his otherworldly ability. Since Week 9, the Chicago offense sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged excellence. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly confident, less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an offense constructed entirely in Johnson's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action and a innovative aerial game that springs wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to create magic out of broken plays.
The coach came to the Bears with a defined offensive vision. Virtually every gamble – overhauling the trenches, featuring the pass-catchers, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the kind of expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has met expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.
In a typical season, Johnson would be the overwhelming choice. Yet this isn't a normal season!
Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears currently rank in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are surviving on turnovers, and takeaways are famously fickle. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two victories behind. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. But Johnson falls just short in this ranking.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
Coen is in a comparable spot to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.
What's more notably, Coen has nailed the leadership aspects, which was not a given after his initial public appearances and some of his offseason moves.
Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen bet on first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jags are stocked with rookies. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently fails in reality – with other teams are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. Yet he has pulled the entire group and everything together.
Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the season would go off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting sustainable ones. The coach refocused the offense around key players and the running game, and asked his QB to use his legs more.
The results are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a skilled roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3
Each Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.
Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new quarterback and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has regressed since that time, dropping to a lower rank in efficiency per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him just one place ahead of other QBs.
Still
